I see that my friend Marc Lynch-- and perhaps some other people-- have gotten a little excited over the new statement by PA/Fateh/PLO head Mahmoud Abbas that he is "ready" to have elections and even to hand over executive and legislative power to Hamas, if it should win.
I think this is a bad way forward.
For anyone who wants to be able to pull a "two state solution" out of the present demographic morass in the West Bank, the top priority now is not the holding of elections to the body whose proper full name-- as Mustafa Barghouthi consistently reminds us-- is the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority (PISGA). It is, rather, the speedy and effective conclusion of a final-status peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.
The PISGA, commonly called the "PA", has been in existence for 15 years now. Its lifespan was originally only meant to be five years.
The 15 years since Yasser Araft and his PLO cronies returned to the West Bank and Gaza, and the 16 years since the conclusion of the Oslo Accord that allowed them to do so, have all seen the pouring of considerable additional concrete into Israel's settlement-building project in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
That cement continues to be poured. And it will continue to be poured so long as the Palestinians can be fooled into thinking that the petty politics of who controls this interim self-governing authority has any lasting importance.
We Americans have seen in Iraq, in 2004-2005, how the promise of an imminent "election" can be used to postpone dealing with much more important and far-reaching demands of those who call for liberation from foreign rule.
We have also seen in Iraq how the the occupying power can use "the election gambit" to foment and deepen divisions within the ranks of the occupied people.
Elections are necessarily divisive. The last thing the Palestinian people need right now is for further divisions to be sowed among them.
Yes, there should be a Palestinian vote at some point, hopefully soon. But that vote should be, first and foremost, the referendum over whether to accept or reject the final peace agreement that the Palestinian leadership has negotiated with Israel.
That is the only vote that counts. If the elections are speedily concluded it could be held sometime before the end of 2010.
That is certainly what we should all be aiming for-- rather than wasting time with planning for and holding yet another round of elections for the interim authority.
Votes for the "legislative" or the "executive" branch of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority are, after all, only ever as meaningful as Israel allows.
Which, as we saw with the result of the January 2006 vote, was not at all.
So why go through that whole charade again? For what? For that fragile, largely impotent, and always Israel-dependent body called the PISGA/PA?
So if the priority is to conclude the negotiations over the final peace agreement, then who can do that?
Hamas has already said they're happy for Mahmoud Abbas to go ahead and do the negotiating-- provided the final result is submitted to a nation-wide referendum, whose results they say they are quite prepared to abide by.
Personally, I don't think Abbas has the energy, the spine, or the imagination to conclude the final peace negotiation on his own. He needs a negotiating team that is considerably stronger and more results-focused than the coterie of second-rate (and largely discredited) figures who have done the negotiations with him over the past 16 years. As I suggested here, he could bring in a new team of well-regarded independents who could do the job with and for him.
People who are as well-regarded in the general Palestinian street as Dr. Haidar Abdel-Shafei was back at the time of Madrid. I am not going to name names (though gosh, Dr. Mustafa Barghouthi's name does keep popping into my mind.... Along with a couple of others.)
Get the peace deal! That has to be the priority.
Then, hold the vote on the results. Not the other way round.... We've all seen, too tragically, where that other path has led over the past 15 years.
